2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

30·25

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

SEA -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.038
  • 44.4%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.61CPOE-0.97
  • 37.5%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA
2022 · W13SEA @ LA27–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
LAQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:49519Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:2235Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:32560Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 5:21844Field goal7–3
SEAQ1 0:37770Touchdown14–3
LAQ2 12:48865Touchdown14–10
SEAQ2 8:47835Field goal17–10
LAQ2 3:2133Turnover17–10
SEAQ2 2:1839Punt17–10
LAQ2 0:53440Field goal17–13
SEAQ3 15:0030Punt17–13
LAQ3 13:22840Field goal17–16
SEAQ3 7:541070Touchdown24–16
LAQ3 3:00970Touchdown24–22
SEAQ4 12:4339Punt24–22
LAQ4 11:11658Field goal24–25
SEAQ4 7:29965Touchdown30–25
LAQ4 3:191261Turnover on downs30–25
SEAQ4 0:1800End of half30–25

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/2722340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet14594.20
Kenny McIntosh7497.00
Geno Smith2147.00
Jaxon Smith-Njigba144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant56631
DK Metcalf35531
AJ Barner55341
Tyler Lockett24280
Jaxon Smith-Njigba4590
Jake Bobo1141
Kenny McIntosh0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo27/4133421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Rivers12484.00
Jordan Whittington2126.00
Blake Corum2105.00
Xavier Smith263.00
Jimmy Garoppolo252.50
Cody Schrader133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Whittington34860
Demarcus Robinson36720
Tyler Higbee57461
Tutu Atwell58370
Tyler Johnson47351
Ronnie Rivers45340
Blake Corum11120
Colby Parkinson1160
Cody Schrader1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.76
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+0.81