Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.038
- 44.4%Success rate47.5%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.61CPOE-0.97
- 37.5%Third-down rate37.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 1.82Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/27 | 223 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 27/41 | 334 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Rivers | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cody Schrader | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cody Schrader | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.76
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.81