Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.032
- 44.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.54CPOE+1.54
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 2.13Points / drive2.00
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/38 | 334 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Cam Akers | 22 | 29 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 6 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 10 | 15 | 119 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/26 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19