2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

30·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+0.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.032
  • 44.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.54CPOE+1.54
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.00
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA
2022 · W13SEA @ LA27–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001247Field goal0–3
LAQ1 9:521785Touchdown7–3
SEAQ1 0:391375Touchdown7–10
LAQ2 9:16414Punt7–10
SEAQ2 7:04528Field goal7–13
LAQ2 4:18637Missed field goal7–13
SEAQ2 1:45518Missed field goal7–13
LAQ2 0:31533Missed field goal7–13
LAQ3 15:001076Touchdown14–13
SEAQ3 8:5635Punt14–13
LAQ3 7:53860Field goal17–13
SEAQ3 2:3955Punt17–13
LAQ3 1:041574Touchdown24–13
SEAQ4 9:4532Punt24–13
LAQ4 9:09840Field goal27–13
SEAQ4 4:573-9Punt27–13
LAQ4 3:1687Field goal30–13
SEAQ4 0:1119End of half30–13

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3833400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams15523.52
Cam Akers22291.31
Matthew Stafford3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell681190
Puka Nacua10151190
Tyler Higbee33490
Van Jefferson45240
Brycen Hopkins12210
Kyren Williams0220
Ben Skowronek0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2611210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III12645.30
Zach Charbonnet3113.70
Geno Smith166.00
DeeJay Dallas242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf35471
Will Dissly22170
DeeJay Dallas11140
Jaxon Smith-Njigba35130
Tyler Lockett24100
Colby Parkinson1280
Kenneth Walker III4530

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.19