2024 · Week 9 · Division

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

26·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LA -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.013
  • 47.5%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.97CPOE+4.61
  • 37.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.82
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA
2022 · W13SEA @ LA27–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00930Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:3237Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:49322Turnover0–0
LAQ1 8:31722Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:31510Punt0–0
LAQ1 2:5335Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:1832Punt0–0
LAQ1 0:25539Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:50629Punt0–0
LAQ2 9:251155Field goal3–0
SEAQ2 3:31970Touchdown3–6
LAQ2 0:51319Turnover3–6
SEAQ2 0:27470Touchdown3–13
LAQ2 0:0500End of half3–13
LAQ3 15:001357Touchdown10–13
SEAQ3 8:2846Punt10–13
LAQ3 6:061451Field goal13–13
SEAQ3 0:27940Opp touchdown20–13
SEAQ4 10:593-4Punt20–13
LAQ4 9:4932Punt20–13
SEAQ4 8:44515Turnover20–13
LAQ4 6:0737Punt20–13
SEAQ4 4:2848Punt20–13
LAQ4 2:59411Punt20–13
SEAQ4 1:54873Touchdown20–20
LAQ4 0:5148Punt20–20
SEAQ4 0:1900End of half20–20
SEAOT754Turnover on downs20–20
LAOT483Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4429821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams22693.10
Matthew Stafford100.00
Blake Corum1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp11141040
Demarcus Robinson69942
Tyler Johnson35380
Kyren Williams13260
Tutu Atwell13160
Puka Nacua14110
Davis Allen1350
Hunter Long1140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith21/3436333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III25833.30
Geno Smith6162.70
Zach Charbonnet284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba7131802
Tyler Lockett34631
Cody White23440
AJ Barner47270
Zach Charbonnet23250
Kenneth Walker III33240
Jake Bobo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.44