Closing spread
LA -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.013
- 47.5%Success rate44.4%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.97CPOE+4.61
- 37.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.09Points / drive1.82
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/44 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 14 | 104 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 9 | 94 | 2 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/34 | 363 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 25 | 83 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 13 | 180 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Cody White | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.44