2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Baker Mayfield

16·19

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.013
  • 41.2%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.69CPOE+5.46
  • 40.2%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.05
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W13SEA @ LA27–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
LAQ1 14:5037Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 13:281061Field goal3–3
LAQ1 7:093-2Punt3–3
SEAQ1 5:00736Field goal3–6
LAQ1 0:15648Field goal6–6
SEAQ2 11:5834Punt6–6
LAQ2 9:42831Punt6–6
SEAQ2 5:59519Punt6–6
LAQ2 3:39987Touchdown13–6
SEAQ2 0:3936Punt13–6
LAQ2 0:1000End of half13–6
LAQ3 15:0079Punt13–6
SEAQ3 11:31588Touchdown13–13
LAQ3 9:09862Field goal16–13
SEAQ3 4:13418Turnover16–13
LAQ3 2:25515Punt16–13
SEAQ4 14:1433Punt16–13
LAQ4 11:58610Punt16–13
SEAQ4 9:351577Field goal16–16
LAQ4 2:1938Punt16–16
SEAQ4 0:56337Missed field goal16–16
SEAOT33Punt16–16
LAOT2-5Turnover16–16
SEAOT750Field goal16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield13/2614701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers211045.00
Baker Mayfield5163.20
Brandon Powell11515.00
Tutu Atwell11111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Van Jefferson37610
Tyler Higbee47330
Tutu Atwell23270
Cam Akers33240
Brandon Powell1320
Brycen Hopkins0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith19/3121312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III291143.90
Geno Smith45112.80
DeeJay Dallas22914.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett47541
Colby Parkinson23470
DK Metcalf38400
Dareke Young22240
Cade Johnson22210
Noah Fant44200
Kenneth Walker III11100
DeeJay Dallas11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.35