Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.013
- 41.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.69CPOE+5.46
- 40.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.57Points / drive2.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 13/26 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 21 | 104 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/31 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 29 | 114 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Dareke Young | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cade Johnson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35