Closing spread
LA -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.149
- 46.6%Success rate52.2%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.021
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- +4.54CPOE+1.65
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.22Points / drive2.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 29/44 | 279 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| George Holani | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 9 | 12 | 105 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 10 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/28 | 130 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93