Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulDavante AdamsWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBraden FiskeDEAnkle· DNP
Seahawks
- OutCharles CrossTHamstring· DNP
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.036
- 52.2%Success rate46.6%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.137
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.076
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.65CPOE+4.54
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.67Points / drive2.22
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:50 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:09 | 12 | 75 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:58 | 7 | 83 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SEA | Q2 12:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 10:24 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| SEA | Q2 3:43 | 9 | 43 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:43 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 13–7 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 12:57 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| SEA | Q3 8:37 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 22–14 |
| LA | Q3 6:34 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| SEA | Q3 6:30 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 23–14 |
| LA | Q3 3:32 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| SEA | Q4 13:34 | 8 | 59 | Turnover | 30–14 |
| LA | Q4 9:39 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 30–22 |
| LA | Q4 8:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 30–22 |
| SEA | Q4 7:02 | 2 | 57 | Touchdown | 30–30 |
| LA | Q4 6:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 30–30 |
| SEA | Q4 4:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 30–30 |
| LA | Q4 3:19 | 7 | 46 | Missed field goal | 30–30 |
| SEA | Q4 2:07 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 30–30 |
| LA | Q4 1:42 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 30–30 |
| SEA | Q4 0:42 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 30–30 |
| LA | OT | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 37–30 |
| SEA | OT | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 37–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/49 | 457 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 23 | 70 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 12 | 16 | 225 | 2 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/34 | 270 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 13 | 96 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48