Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.036
- 52.2%Success rate46.6%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.137
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.076
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.65CPOE+4.54
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.67Points / drive2.22
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/49 | 457 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 23 | 70 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 12 | 16 | 225 | 2 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/34 | 270 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 13 | 96 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48