Closing spread
STL -11.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:14 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:31 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:01 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 0:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 14:18 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 7:45 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:36 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| ARI | Q3 7:17 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| LA | Q3 7:03 | 11 | 54 | Missed field goal | 13–23 |
| ARI | Q3 1:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–23 |
| LA | Q3 0:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–23 |
| ARI | Q4 14:40 | 1 | -10 | Turnover | 13–23 |
| LA | Q4 14:31 | 4 | 22 | Touchdown | 13–30 |
| ARI | Q4 13:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–30 |
| LA | Q4 12:09 | 15 | 72 | Touchdown | 13–37 |
| ARI | Q4 4:06 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 13–37 |
| LA | Q4 2:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–37 |
| ARI | Q4 2:14 | 1 | 31 | Turnover | 13–37 |
| LA | Q4 2:00 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 13–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 10/17 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3/4 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| James Hodgins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.