Closing spread
LA -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.067
- 47.5%Success rate47.3%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.023
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.97CPOE+2.11
- 37.0%Third-down rate43.0%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.09Points / drive2.31
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/27 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 17/21 | 266 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 122 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 46 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 11 | 10 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 8 | 130 | 2 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45