2024 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

10·41

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.067
  • 47.5%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.023
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.97CPOE+2.11
  • 37.0%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.31
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
LAQ1 15:0049Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 13:30660Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 11:033-2Punt0–13
ARIQ1 8:57160Touchdown0–14
LAQ1 8:4736Punt0–14
ARIQ1 7:0015102Touchdown0–21
LAQ2 13:29645Field goal3–21
ARIQ2 9:38645Field goal3–24
LAQ2 5:093-4Punt3–24
ARIQ2 3:063-5Punt3–24
LAQ2 1:501167Turnover on downs3–24
ARIQ3 15:00980Touchdown3–31
LAQ3 10:3338Punt3–31
ARIQ3 8:40843Field goal3–34
LAQ3 3:27870Touchdown10–34
ARIQ3 0:411260Touchdown10–41
LAQ4 9:02318Turnover10–41
ARIQ4 7:59644Turnover10–41
LAQ4 4:17828End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/2721600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Corum8283.50
Kyren Williams12252.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson24500
Tutu Atwell34480
Cooper Kupp46370
Kyren Williams45270
Jordan Whittington22220
Tyler Johnson23200
Colby Parkinson12120
Ronnie Rivers1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray17/2126630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner211225.81
Kyler Murray55911.80
Emari Demercado24623.00
Trey Benson11100.90
Clayton Tune1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.481302
Trey McBride66670
Michael Wilson22310
Elijah Higgins11181
Greg Dortch22110
Trey Benson1170
James Conner1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45