Closing spread
LA -9.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.014
- 52.2%Success rate43.0%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.042
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.142
- 11.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.65CPOE+1.10
- 40.0%Third-down rate41.6%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.67Points / drive1.88
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/31 | 281 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 12 | 128 | 10.7 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 84 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 11 | 167 | 2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 25/44 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 11 | 16 | 142 | 2 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.16