2025 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

45·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -9.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.014
  • 52.2%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.042
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.142
  • 11.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +1.65CPOE+1.10
  • 40.0%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.88
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00567Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 12:05960Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 7:40514Punt3–7
LAQ1 4:55674Touchdown10–7
ARIQ1 1:291372Field goal10–10
LAQ2 8:341075Touchdown17–10
ARIQ2 2:4730Punt17–10
LAQ2 1:42797Touchdown24–10
ARIQ2 0:12320Missed field goal24–10
LAQ3 15:001262Touchdown31–10
ARIQ3 10:0935Punt31–10
LAQ3 9:07939Punt31–10
ARIQ3 4:1534Punt31–10
LAQ3 3:0137Punt31–10
ARIQ3 1:0132Turnover37–10
LAQ3 0:18131Touchdown38–10
ARIQ3 0:1231Punt44–10
LAQ4 13:56148Touchdown45–10
ARIQ4 13:461065Touchdown45–17
LAQ4 11:08414Punt45–17
ARIQ4 8:281164Turnover on downs45–17
LAQ4 5:17527End of half45–17

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3128130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Corum1212810.72
Kyren Williams13846.51
Ronnie Rivers8415.10
Jimmy Garoppolo3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua7111672
Colby Parkinson35321
Davante Adams46290
Davis Allen22210
Kyren Williams22130
Xavier Smith1160
Jordan Whittington1150
Konata Mumpfield1150
Blake Corum1130
Terrance Ferguson0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett25/4427121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacoby Brissett4225.50
Bam Knight7162.30
Michael Carter3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson11161422
Trey McBride59580
Jalen Brooks23320
Michael Carter24180
Bam Knight36180
Andre Baccellia1330
Trent Sherfield0100
Josiah Deguara0100
Elijah Higgins1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.16