2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

9·13

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.038
  • 47.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.11CPOE-0.97
  • 43.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
LAQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:14619Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:12610Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:15722Punt0–0
LAQ1 3:07414Punt0–0
ARIQ1 1:041177Turnover on downs0–0
LAQ2 11:04314Punt0–0
ARIQ2 9:28611Punt0–0
LAQ2 6:35960Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 3:23419Punt0–7
LAQ2 1:41747Field goal0–10
ARIQ2 0:271-8End of half0–10
ARIQ3 15:001467Touchdown6–10
LAQ3 8:31419Punt6–10
ARIQ3 6:1914100Field goal9–10
LAQ4 14:001465Field goal9–13
ARIQ4 6:33730Turnover9–13
LAQ4 3:0236Punt9–13
ARIQ4 2:01959Turnover9–13
LAQ4 0:3721End of half9–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray33/4832112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter13705.40
Kyler Murray4328.00
Michael Wilson177.00
James Conner441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride12161231
Marvin Harrison Jr.610960
Elijah Higgins23230
Michael Wilson46220
Zay Jones11190
Greg Dortch33180
Michael Carter22110
DeeJay Dallas1150
James Conner2340

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/3218900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13564.31
Matthew Stafford6162.70
Blake Corum3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua10141290
Cooper Kupp13290
Kyren Williams33160
Tyler Higbee2390
Jordan Whittington1160
Demarcus Robinson0200
Colby Parkinson0100
Davis Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.96