Closing spread
LA -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.038
- 47.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.11CPOE-0.97
- 43.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.31Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 33/48 | 321 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 12 | 16 | 123 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/32 | 189 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 10 | 14 | 129 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96