Closing spread
LA -14.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.149
- 43.0%Success rate52.2%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.021
- 6.8%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.10CPOE+1.65
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.0%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.88Points / drive2.67
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/31 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Corey Kiner | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/40 | 259 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 10 | 11 | 76 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 7 | 36 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.49