2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·37

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -14.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.149
  • 43.0%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.021
  • 6.8%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.10CPOE+1.65
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.67
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
ARIQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
LAQ1 13:0037Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 11:071366Field goal3–3
LAQ1 3:261459Field goal3–6
ARIQ2 11:45527Field goal6–6
LAQ2 9:351874Touchdown6–13
ARIQ2 1:22211Turnover6–13
LAQ2 0:49642Field goal6–16
LAQ3 15:003-1Punt6–16
ARIQ3 13:41683Touchdown13–16
LAQ3 10:3830Punt13–16
ARIQ3 10:081071Touchdown20–16
LAQ3 3:51670Touchdown20–23
ARIQ3 0:4244Punt20–23
LAQ4 13:32666Touchdown20–30
ARIQ4 10:3933Punt20–30
LAQ4 9:121281Touchdown20–37
ARIQ4 4:151047Turnover on downs20–37
LAQ4 1:4700End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/3124321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado22914.50
Jacoby Brissett3196.30
Michael Carter7182.60
Corey Kiner3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson58991
Trey McBride78650
Emari Demercado11280
Elijah Higgins33280
Michael Carter33210
Josiah Deguara22151
Corey Kiner23150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4025940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams12605.00
Blake Corum13594.50
Puka Nacua22412.00
Matthew Stafford133.00
Jimmy Garoppolo3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee56911
Puka Nacua1011761
Colby Parkinson47362
Kyren Williams35210
Tutu Atwell13190
Blake Corum11100
Xavier Smith1260
Davis Allen0100
Konata Mumpfield0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.49