Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutMax GarciaGShoulder· DNP
- OutRodney HudsonCKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBudda BakerSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableByron MurphyCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableChristian MatthewCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableCody FordGIllness· Limited
- QuestionableD.J. HumphriesTBack· Limited
- QuestionableDennis GardeckLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableGreg DortchWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableKyler MurrayQBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMatt PraterKright Hip· DNP
- DNPWill HernandezGChest
Rams
- OutMalcolm BrownRBHamstring· DNP
- OutTravin HowardLBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulAlaric JacksonTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulGreg GainesTElbow· DNP
- QuestionableBrian AllenCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMatthew StaffordQBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableRobert RochellCBIllness· Limited
- DNPAaron DonaldDTNot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.083
- 40.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.065
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.70CPOE-2.69
- 35.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.60Points / drive1.57
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 6:16 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 14:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 12:56 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 11:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 8:27 | 13 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:56 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q2 1:34 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 12:11 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–3 |
| ARI | Q3 8:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 7:31 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 4:24 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q4 12:44 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LA | Q4 7:41 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| ARI | Q4 5:33 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| LA | Q4 3:44 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| ARI | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 26/37 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 14 | 98 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 9 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 24/36 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1/1 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Perkins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.96