Closing spread
LA -7
Total
48
Model margin
+6.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.042
- 41.0%Success rate44.9%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.022
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.77CPOE-3.54
- 39.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.88Points / drive2.13
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 21/41 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/24 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 20 | 158 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Zach Evans | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 9 | 148 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.80