2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

18·16

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

LA -12.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.047
  • 44.1%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.031
  • 5.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.66CPOE+0.50
  • 39.0%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
  • 1.94Points / drive2.15
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
LAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:3535Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:1856Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 9:41737Field goal3–3
LAQ1 5:3738Punt3–3
ARIQ1 4:09968Field goal6–3
LAQ2 14:511268Touchdown6–9
ARIQ2 8:2336Punt6–9
LAQ2 6:4834Punt6–9
ARIQ2 5:201164Field goal9–9
LAQ2 0:46212End of half9–9
ARIQ3 15:001566Field goal12–9
LAQ3 6:25941Turnover on downs12–9
ARIQ3 2:391463Field goal15–9
LAQ4 9:28514Turnover15–9
ARIQ4 7:5734Punt15–9
LAQ4 6:55733Turnover on downs15–9
ARIQ4 3:1730Punt15–9
LAQ4 2:48891Touchdown15–16
ARIQ4 0:47425Field goal18–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett24/3521801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight15805.30
Tyler Allgeier18382.10
Jacoby Brissett221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride79530
Kendrick Bourne58470
Michael Wilson47320
Jalen Brooks23300
Elijah Higgins33280
Bam Knight22180
Tyler Allgeier12100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3322220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams10505.00
Blake Corum9424.70
Davis Allen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua67800
Davante Adams34390
Colby Parkinson56311
Tyler Higbee44220
Blake Corum22181
Kyren Williams36170
Konata Mumpfield23150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.29