Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-14.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapRams
- +0.139EPA / play-0.226
- 48.6%Success rate43.3%
- +0.270EPA / dropback-0.270
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.171
- 5.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- +4.61CPOE-4.74
- 46.2%Third-down rate22.2%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.35Points / drive0.69
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-16.39
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-14.26