2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

37·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

45

Model margin

-0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.9%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.54CPOE-2.77
  • 41.4%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.88
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI
2022 · W3LA @ ARI20–12RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
LAQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 11:181373Touchdown7–8
LAQ1 4:50833Punt7–8
ARIQ1 0:3334Punt7–8
LAQ2 14:54851Touchdown14–8
ARIQ2 9:573-3Punt14–8
LAQ2 8:23850Missed field goal14–8
ARIQ2 3:3748Turnover on downs14–8
LAQ2 1:56448Touchdown21–8
ARIQ2 0:5936Punt21–8
LAQ2 0:32330Turnover21–8
ARIQ2 0:15314End of half21–8
ARIQ3 15:00935Punt21–8
LAQ3 11:22672Field goal24–8
ARIQ3 7:33642Missed field goal24–8
LAQ3 5:031354Touchdown31–8
ARIQ4 12:413-18Punt31–8
LAQ4 11:20538Touchdown37–8
ARIQ4 8:191170Touchdown37–14
LAQ4 5:1236Punt37–14
ARIQ4 3:281261End of half37–14

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3322941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams161438.90
Royce Freeman13775.91
Zach Evans362.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell33760
Kyren Williams66612
Tyler Higbee55292
Puka Nacua48270
Cooper Kupp35180
Demarcus Robinson22130
Davis Allen1160
Ben Skowronek11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/4525610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner6274.50
Michael Carter4194.80
Emari Demercado3155.00
Kyler Murray122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown612880
Trey McBride79600
Rondale Moore23350
Greg Dortch39271
Elijah Higgins12260
Michael Carter44150
James Conner4550

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.50