Closing spread
LA -3
Total
45
Model margin
-0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.055
- 44.9%Success rate41.0%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.54CPOE-2.77
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.13Points / drive1.88
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/33 | 229 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 143 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Zach Evans | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 3 | 3 | 76 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 6 | 61 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 29 | 2 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/45 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 9 | 27 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50