Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:26 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:46 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:47 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:41 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:48 | 4 | 10 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:19 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q2 8:14 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:44 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q2 4:44 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:54 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:35 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 20 | Field goal | 24–14 |
| LV | Q3 10:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:35 | 11 | 58 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LV | Q3 1:34 | 15 | 75 | Field goal | 24–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| LV | Q4 5:59 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| LAC | Q4 4:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 31–24 |
| LV | Q4 2:51 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| LAC | Q4 1:24 | 5 | 48 | End of half | 31–31 |
| LAC | OT | 4 | 12 | Punt | 31–31 |
| LV | OT | 4 | -3 | Punt | 31–31 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | -4 | Punt | 31–31 |
| LV | OT | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 31–34 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.