2003 · Week 4

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

30·13

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.040EPA / play-0.084
  • 42.3%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.215EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.170
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 41.2%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.051

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair15/1616130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George11211.90
Steve McNair252.50
Chris Brown630.50

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox31/4733202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue18512.81
Antwaan Randle El11515.00
Jerome Bettis362.00
Tommy Maddox2-1-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92