Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.084
- 42.3%Success rate41.6%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.170
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 87 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 5:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 3:46 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 13:53 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 10:14 | 2 | -5 | Safety | 2–10 |
| TEN | Q2 9:30 | 3 | 55 | Touchdown | 9–10 |
| PIT | Q2 7:51 | 11 | 33 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q2 2:40 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 9–13 |
| PIT | Q2 1:32 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q2 0:50 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 16–13 |
| PIT | Q2 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–13 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 16–13 |
| PIT | Q3 12:17 | 6 | 55 | Missed field goal | 16–13 |
| TEN | Q3 9:51 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| PIT | Q3 4:33 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 23–13 |
| TEN | Q3 0:24 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 29–13 |
| PIT | Q4 12:58 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 30–13 |
| PIT | Q4 12:46 | 10 | 27 | Punt | 30–13 |
| TEN | Q4 8:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 30–13 |
| PIT | Q4 6:32 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 30–13 |
| TEN | Q4 4:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 30–13 |
| PIT | Q4 2:36 | 10 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 30–13 |
| TEN | Q4 0:27 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 30–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/16 | 161 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 31/47 | 332 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92