Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:29 | 14 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:43 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:07 | 9 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:56 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:56 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:18 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 3:12 | 8 | 79 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 43 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 12:23 | 12 | 100 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 6:39 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q3 4:27 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 2:38 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| JAX | Q3 2:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:53 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–20 |
| JAX | Q4 12:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q4 11:09 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–20 |
| JAX | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q4 6:10 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| JAX | Q4 4:19 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:47 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| JAX | Q4 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 19/28 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 27 | 87 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.