Closing spread
JAX -5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.020
- 44.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.86CPOE-2.97
- 40.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.81
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 21/37 | 235 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 77 | 2 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 28/51 | 273 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Grant | 1 | 56 | 56.0 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 17 | 33 | 1.9 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 6 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.18