2017 · Week 10

Final / OT

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

17·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.020
  • 44.9%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.86CPOE-2.97
  • 40.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.81
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–JAX
LACQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:30525Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:0838Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:3039Punt0–0
LACQ1 5:3239Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:20890Touchdown0–6
LACQ1 0:241045Punt0–6
JAXQ2 10:18620Punt0–6
LACQ2 6:4730Punt0–6
JAXQ2 6:2048Punt0–6
LACQ2 3:46789Touchdown7–6
JAXQ2 0:4728End of half7–6
JAXQ3 15:0032Punt7–6
LACQ3 13:52754Touchdown14–6
JAXQ3 10:29540Turnover on downs14–6
LACQ3 7:56510Punt14–6
JAXQ3 6:151184Touchdown14–14
LACQ3 2:0338Punt14–14
JAXQ4 14:5039Punt14–14
LACQ4 13:54755Field goal17–14
JAXQ4 10:35517Punt17–14
LACQ4 8:5739Punt17–14
JAXQ4 7:33423Punt17–14
LACQ4 6:00511Punt17–14
JAXQ4 2:40418Turnover17–14
LACQ4 1:511-1Turnover17–14
JAXQ4 1:4840Turnover17–14
LACQ4 1:2436Punt17–14
JAXQ4 0:58621Field goal17–17
LACQ4 0:0300End of half17–17
JAXOT824Punt17–17
LACOT31Turnover17–17
JAXOT30Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers21/3723521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler10424.20
Melvin Gordon16271.70
Travis Benjamin11313.00
Keenan Allen166.00
Philip Rivers2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler55772
Tyrell Williams25490
Keenan Allen47480
Mike Williams22240
Melvin Gordon58150
Hunter Henry1270
Antonio Gates1230
Travis Benjamin0300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles28/5127312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Grant15656.01
Blake Bortles5346.80
Leonard Fournette17331.90
T.J. Yeldon3113.70
Chris Ivory111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns79700
Keelan Cole38610
Marqise Lee611551
T.J. Yeldon68390
Marcedes Lewis25290
Leonard Fournette24130
Jaydon Mickens12110
Ben Koyack0100
Chris Ivory12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.18