2025 · Week 11

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

6·35

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.039
  • 43.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.01CPOE-1.56
  • 46.7%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.30
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–JAX
LACQ1 15:00318Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:281047Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 8:12835Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 3:31743Touchdown3–7
LACQ2 15:003-5Punt3–7
JAXQ2 12:5410Turnover3–7
LACQ2 12:4899Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 8:15960Touchdown6–14
LACQ2 3:37843Punt6–14
JAXQ2 0:2023End of half6–14
JAXQ3 15:001260Touchdown6–21
LACQ3 7:5032Punt6–21
JAXQ3 5:561676Touchdown6–28
LACQ4 11:3810Turnover6–28
JAXQ4 11:15213Touchdown6–35
LACQ4 11:0242Turnover on downs6–35
JAXQ4 10:2247Turnover on downs6–35
LACQ4 8:01931Turnover on downs6–35
JAXQ4 5:02836End of half6–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert10/188101
Trey Lance3/83700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert3217.00
Kimani Vidal5132.60
Amar Johnson284.00
Trey Lance310.30
Trayveon Williams3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen46530
Oronde Gadsden II25410
Ladd McConkey34130
Tre Harris11120
Trayveon Williams1100
Quentin Johnston0300
Derius Davis0100
Amar Johnson0100
Kimani Vidal22-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence14/2215311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten15744.91
Travis Etienne19733.82
LeQuint Allen Jr.8364.50
Trevor Lawrence591.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers56640
Johnny Mundt23250
Tim Patrick34201
Parker Washington22200
Austin Trammell11130
Quintin Morris13110
Dyami Brown0100
Travis Etienne0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

6.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.47