Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.039
- 43.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.01CPOE-1.56
- 46.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.10Points / drive2.30
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10/18 | 81 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Lance | 3/8 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Amar Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amar Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 14/22 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 2 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47