Closing spread
JAX -5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 30/49 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 9 | 10 | 116 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 11 | 56 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.