2015 · Week 12

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

31·25

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00976Field goal0–3
LACQ1 10:39613Punt0–3
JAXQ1 8:24748Field goal0–6
LACQ1 4:43417Punt0–6
JAXQ1 2:5837Punt0–6
LACQ1 0:58763Touchdown7–6
JAXQ2 14:21739Punt7–6
LACQ2 10:4433Punt7–6
JAXQ2 9:06541Field goal7–9
LACQ2 7:041393Touchdown14–9
JAXQ2 1:50416Turnover14–9
LACQ2 1:01322Touchdown21–9
JAXQ2 0:452-2End of half21–9
LACQ3 15:004-4Punt21–9
JAXQ3 12:30640Field goal21–12
LACQ3 10:0332Punt21–12
JAXQ3 8:2931Punt21–12
LACQ3 7:321361Field goal24–12
JAXQ3 1:021280Touchdown24–19
LACQ4 10:581480Touchdown31–19
JAXQ4 4:451160Turnover on downs31–19
LACQ4 2:01424Punt31–19
JAXQ4 1:30214Touchdown31–25
LACQ4 1:2100End of half31–25

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles30/4932921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon9364.00
Blake Bortles6335.50
Denard Robinson3237.70
Marqise Lee11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julius Thomas9101161
Allen Robinson511561
T.J. Yeldon45460
Allen Hurns49420
Marcedes Lewis12240
Rashad Greene34170
Clay Harbor12120
Denard Robinson1190
Bryan Walters1340
Marqise Lee1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.38

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.