2019 · Week 14

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

45·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.053
  • 47.3%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.145
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.58CPOE-3.03
  • 45.5%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.61
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001367Field goal0–3
LACQ1 7:23473Touchdown7–3
JAXQ1 5:4639Punt7–3
LACQ1 4:10925Punt7–3
JAXQ2 14:47616Punt7–3
LACQ2 11:291075Touchdown14–3
JAXQ2 5:18627Punt14–3
LACQ2 1:52265Touchdown21–3
JAXQ2 1:3437Punt21–3
LACQ2 1:10732Field goal24–3
JAXQ2 0:0300End of half24–3
LACQ3 15:00384Touchdown31–3
JAXQ3 13:531670Touchdown31–10
LACQ3 5:48685Touchdown38–10
JAXQ3 1:51619Turnover on downs38–10
LACQ4 14:54738Touchdown45–10
JAXQ4 10:5330Punt45–10
LACQ4 10:2134Punt45–10
JAXQ4 9:131137Turnover on downs45–10
LACQ4 5:34746End of half45–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers16/2231430
Tyrod Taylor3/52610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler810112.60
Melvin Gordon12554.61
Justin Jackson3258.30
Tyrod Taylor4102.50
Philip Rivers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler451121
Keenan Allen56830
Mike Williams23631
Hunter Henry24391
Melvin Gordon55290
Virgil Green11141
Jalen Guyton0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew24/3716210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette15503.30
Gardner Minshew6315.20
Ryquell Armstead273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark910750
Nick O'Leary45301
Dede Westbrook67250
Leonard Fournette36130
Keelan Cole13120
Michael Walker1190
Chris Conley1370
Ryquell Armstead0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09