Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
-0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.053
- 47.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.58CPOE-3.03
- 45.5%Third-down rate35.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.99Points / drive1.61
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 16/22 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3/5 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 112 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/37 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 9 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 6 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Walker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09