2022 · Week 3

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

38·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbery

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChargers
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.007
  • 46.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.057
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.07CPOE+1.13
  • 42.0%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. LAC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–LAC
JAXQ1 15:00631Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 12:0833Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:40520Punt0–0
LACQ1 7:18419Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:111168Field goal3–0
LACQ2 14:5710Turnover3–0
JAXQ2 14:4130Field goal6–0
LACQ2 13:5253Turnover6–0
JAXQ2 12:21528Touchdown13–0
LACQ2 10:23975Touchdown13–7
JAXQ2 6:101070Field goal16–7
LACQ2 1:02416Punt16–7
JAXQ2 0:1100End of half16–7
LACQ3 15:00978Field goal16–10
JAXQ3 11:51575Touchdown23–10
LACQ3 10:3836Punt23–10
JAXQ3 9:421455Touchdown31–10
LACQ3 1:15853Turnover on downs31–10
JAXQ4 14:041468Touchdown38–10
LACQ4 4:541559Turnover on downs38–10
JAXQ4 0:0300End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence28/3926230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson171005.91
Travis Etienne13453.50
Trevor Lawrence372.30
Evan Engram100.00
Zay Jones100.00
C.J. Beathard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones1011851
Christian Kirk69721
Marvin Jones47331
Travis Etienne33300
Jamal Agnew11170
James Robinson33160
Evan Engram1390
JaMycal Hasty0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert25/4529711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel5224.40
Justin Herbert177.00
Austin Ekeler451.30
Joshua Kelley1-3-3.00
DeAndre Carter1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer69990
Jalen Guyton23640
Austin Ekeler88480
DeAndre Carter34310
Gerald Everett26250
Mike Williams16151
Sony Michel1290
Joshua Kelley2260
Zander Horvath0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.58