Closing spread
LAC -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.007
- 46.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.057
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.07CPOE+1.13
- 42.0%Third-down rate43.5%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.07Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. LAC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 28/39 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 10 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 9 | 72 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/45 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 6 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.58