Closing spread
LAC -8
Total
48
Model margin
+6.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.043
- 42.0%Success rate43.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.40CPOE+0.07
- 40.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.74Points / drive2.02
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. LAC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 14/27 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 22 | 119 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/43 | 347 | 3 | 0 |
| Easton Stick | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Joe Reed | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Easton Stick | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 10 | 13 | 125 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 3 | 84 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+6.56