2020 · Week 7

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew II

29·39

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -8

Total

48

Model margin

+6.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChargers
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.043
  • 42.0%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.40CPOE+0.07
  • 40.6%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.02
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. LAC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · playoffsLAC @ JAX30–31JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–LAC
JAXQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LACQ1 14:03877Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:1532Punt0–3
LACQ1 8:1636Punt0–3
JAXQ1 7:2133Punt0–3
LACQ1 5:441371Touchdown0–9
JAXQ1 0:0533Punt0–9
LACQ2 13:33647Touchdown0–16
JAXQ2 10:34678Touchdown8–16
LACQ2 7:4634Punt8–16
JAXQ2 6:40529Turnover on downs8–16
LACQ2 4:5535Punt8–16
JAXQ2 3:521167Touchdown14–16
LACQ2 0:1110End of half14–16
LACQ3 15:0039Opp touchdown21–16
LACQ3 13:21745Missed field goal21–16
JAXQ3 10:1849Turnover on downs21–16
LACQ3 8:21742Touchdown21–22
JAXQ3 5:25754Touchdown29–22
LACQ3 2:54280Touchdown29–29
JAXQ3 1:5600Touchdown29–29
LACQ3 1:47419Touchdown29–36
JAXQ3 0:05729Punt29–36
LACQ4 11:021058Field goal29–39
JAXQ4 6:26814Turnover on downs29–39
LACQ4 3:56624End of half29–39

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew14/2717320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson221195.41
Gardner Minshew4215.30
Laviska Shenault Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laviska Shenault Jr.33440
James O'Shaughnessy33320
Chris Conley12281
DJ Chark17260
James Robinson46181
Collin Johnson11130
Keelan Cole12120

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert27/4334730
Easton Stick1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert9667.31
Joshua Kelley12292.40
Joe Reed2147.01
Justin Jackson5122.40
Tyron Johnson2105.00
Troymaine Pope166.00
Easton Stick1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen10131250
Jalen Guyton23841
Justin Jackson56430
Virgil Green12261
Joshua Kelley55240
Hunter Henry37230
Donald Parham11221
Mike Williams1340
Tyron Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+6.56