Closing spread
LAC -2
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.045
- 44.1%Success rate46.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.100
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.13CPOE+1.07
- 43.5%Third-down rate42.0%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.97Points / drive2.07
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/43 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 6 | 8 | 109 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 13 | 61 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 28/47 | 288 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 14 | 78 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 13 | 74 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.15