2022 · WC

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

30·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -2

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.045
  • 44.1%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.100
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.13CPOE+1.07
  • 43.5%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.07
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 9–6 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11LAC @ JAX6–35JAX
2022 · W3JAX @ LAC38–10JAX
2020 · W7JAX @ LAC29–39CHARGERS
2019 · W14LAC @ JAX45–10CHARGERS
2017 · W10LAC @ JAX17–20JAX
2016 · W2JAX @ SD14–38CHARGERS
2015 · W12SD @ JAX31–25CHARGERS
2014 · W4JAX @ SD14–33CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0024Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:13218Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 13:33942Turnover7–0
LACQ1 10:021157Field goal10–0
JAXQ1 5:3031Punt10–0
LACQ1 4:3335Punt10–0
JAXQ1 2:5835Turnover10–0
LACQ1 2:02316Touchdown17–0
JAXQ1 0:4431Punt17–0
LACQ2 13:361167Touchdown24–0
JAXQ2 7:1230Turnover24–0
LACQ2 6:5138Punt24–0
LACQ2 5:1431Field goal27–0
JAXQ2 4:2538Punt27–0
LACQ2 3:1139Punt27–0
JAXQ2 1:49747Touchdown27–7
LACQ2 0:2400End of half27–7
LACQ3 15:00737Punt27–7
JAXQ3 12:281589Touchdown27–14
LACQ3 5:11645Field goal30–14
JAXQ3 2:58568Touchdown30–20
LACQ3 0:441453Missed field goal30–20
JAXQ4 8:471064Touchdown30–28
LACQ4 5:2535Punt30–28
JAXQ4 3:09961Field goal30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert25/4327310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler13352.72
Joshua Kelley7202.90
Justin Herbert3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gerald Everett681091
Keenan Allen613610
Josh Palmer26310
Donald Parham45230
DeAndre Carter23170
Tre' McKitty22160
Austin Ekeler2480
Joshua Kelley1180

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence28/4728844

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne201095.50
Trevor Lawrence188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram711931
Christian Kirk814781
Zay Jones813741
Marvin Jones36291
Travis Etienne11120
Jamal Agnew1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.15