Closing spread
SD -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jaguars
- OutChris IvoryRBNot Injury Related· DNP
- OutPrince AmukamaraCBHamstring· DNP
Chargers
- OutJoey BosaDEHamstring· DNP
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:14 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:04 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 5:04 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:28 | 7 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q2 14:54 | 5 | 39 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 12:05 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| JAX | Q2 9:54 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 8:49 | 8 | 16 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| JAX | Q2 5:13 | 6 | 41 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 2:46 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–21 |
| JAX | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 44 | End of half | 0–21 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q3 12:27 | 4 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| JAX | Q3 10:54 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LAC | Q3 9:39 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–28 |
| JAX | Q3 7:52 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LAC | Q3 7:06 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| JAX | Q3 2:48 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| LAC | Q4 12:54 | 11 | 31 | Field goal | 7–38 |
| JAX | Q4 7:00 | 7 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 7–38 |
| LAC | Q4 4:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–38 |
| JAX | Q4 3:34 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–38 |
| LAC | Q4 1:04 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 14–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 31/50 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.