Closing spread
SD -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. SD are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 31/50 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.