Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.009
- 38.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate46.4%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.44Points / drive1.71
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:57 | 5 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 7:53 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 3:27 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 12:56 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 11:07 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 7:35 | 10 | 54 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CHI | Q2 2:46 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 1:28 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| NO | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q3 12:01 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–13 |
| NO | Q3 9:38 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q3 6:18 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| NO | Q4 13:18 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q4 7:18 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| NO | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 10/21 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/29 | 153 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35