Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.009
- 38.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate46.4%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.44Points / drive1.71
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 10/21 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/29 | 153 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35