Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.032
- 39.3%Success rate41.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.45Points / drive1.46
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:32 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:33 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:31 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 3:12 | 17 | 49 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 11:24 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 7:16 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 4:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 2:44 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 12:37 | 10 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q3 8:26 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 6:46 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q3 6:39 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 4:04 | 6 | 35 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 1:07 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q4 11:29 | 8 | 82 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| MIA | Q4 6:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q4 4:29 | 7 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| MIA | Q4 3:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q4 2:18 | 4 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 24–10 |
| JAX | Q4 1:28 | 4 | 30 | End of half | 24–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/27 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 24/42 | 256 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 1 | 65 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18