Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.032
- 39.3%Success rate41.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.45Points / drive1.46
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 14/27 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 24/42 | 256 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 1 | 65 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18