2024 · Week 1

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

17·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.040
  • 41.5%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.246
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.88CPOE+3.08
  • 36.6%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.92
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00738Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 11:373-14Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:02618Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:49756Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 4:31416Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:03511Punt7–0
MIAQ2 14:39714Turnover on downs7–0
JAXQ2 11:52866Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 6:211274Touchdown14–7
JAXQ2 1:04543Field goal17–7
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt17–7
MIAQ3 13:30712Punt17–7
JAXQ3 9:3947Punt17–7
MIAQ3 8:19443Punt17–7
JAXQ3 5:26680Turnover17–13
MIAQ3 2:19180Touchdown17–14
JAXQ3 2:0847Turnover on downs17–14
MIAQ4 14:4736Missed field goal17–14
JAXQ4 13:33516Punt17–14
MIAQ4 11:061368Field goal17–17
JAXQ4 4:223-10Punt17–17
MIAQ4 2:09731Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence12/2116210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby12736.10
Travis Etienne12443.71
Trevor Lawrence188.00
Devin Duvernay133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis33620
Brian Thomas Jr.44471
Christian Kirk14300
Travis Etienne23150
Evan Engram1450
Parker Washington1130

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa23/3733810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson5265.20
De'Von Achane10242.41
Tua Tagovailoa11111.00
Raheem Mostert691.50
Jaylen Waddle133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill7121301
Jaylen Waddle551090
De'Von Achane77760
Raheem Mostert23100
Jonnu Smith1270
Julian Hill1160
Braxton Berrios0200
Durham Smythe0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.68