Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.040
- 41.5%Success rate44.3%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.246
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.88CPOE+3.08
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.74Points / drive1.92
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 12/21 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/37 | 338 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 12 | 130 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 5 | 109 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68