Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
49
Model margin
-6.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.050
- 46.8%Success rate42.0%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.23CPOE-0.40
- 38.5%Third-down rate40.6%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 1.99Points / drive1.74
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/20 | 160 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 22 | 66 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Isaiah Ford | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 30/42 | 275 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.55