2020 · Week 3

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

31·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

49

Model margin

-6.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.050
  • 46.8%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.23CPOE-0.40
  • 38.5%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.74
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–JAX
MIAQ1 15:001284Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 8:09430Punt7–0
MIAQ1 5:54760Touchdown14–0
JAXQ1 2:37975Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 13:041370Touchdown21–7
JAXQ2 5:581014Turnover on downs21–7
MIAQ2 1:1034Punt21–7
JAXQ2 0:36512Punt21–7
JAXQ3 15:00517Punt21–7
MIAQ3 12:18736Punt21–7
JAXQ3 6:53615Turnover21–7
MIAQ3 4:0452Touchdown28–7
JAXQ3 2:01757Turnover on downs28–7
MIAQ4 14:383-1Punt28–7
JAXQ4 12:141150Touchdown28–13
MIAQ4 9:03421Punt28–13
JAXQ4 5:464-1Turnover on downs28–13
MIAQ4 4:4732Field goal31–13
JAXQ4 3:49549Turnover31–13
MIAQ4 2:27317End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick18/2016020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin22663.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick7385.41
Jakeem Grant12929.00
Matt Breida341.30
Jordan Howard310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker55690
Myles Gaskin55290
Jakeem Grant11190
Mike Gesicki13151
Isaiah Ford22140
Durham Smythe1170
Preston Williams2271
Ryan Fitzpatrick1100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew30/4227501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson11464.22
Gardner Minshew3227.30
Chris Thompson231.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Robinson66830
Keelan Cole46430
Chris Thompson56350
Chris Conley38340
Laviska Shenault Jr.56330
James O'Shaughnessy34290
Tyler Eifert23110
Dede Westbrook1140
Collin Johnson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%5.0%3.2%7.3%6.0%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.55