2018 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Cody Kessler

17·7

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.111
  • 40.4%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.128
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.63CPOE-0.24
  • 40.5%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.45
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00883Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 9:491367Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 2:2935Punt7–7
JAXQ1 0:4654Punt7–7
MIAQ2 13:11517Punt7–7
JAXQ2 10:13526Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 7:3935Missed field goal7–7
JAXQ2 6:06611Punt7–7
MIAQ2 2:55622Punt7–7
JAXQ2 0:0400Missed field goal7–7
JAXQ3 15:00941Punt7–7
MIAQ3 9:4336Turnover7–7
JAXQ3 8:285-16Punt7–7
MIAQ3 6:1256Punt7–7
JAXQ3 3:483-1Punt7–7
MIAQ3 2:2033Punt7–7
JAXQ3 0:421159Field goal10–7
MIAQ4 10:56312Opp touchdown17–7
MIAQ4 9:34724Punt17–7
JAXQ4 5:14855End of half17–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler12/1710600
Blake Bortles5/63900
Dede Westbrook0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde8475.90
Leonard Fournette18432.41
Blake Bortles4256.30
Dede Westbrook199.00
Cody Kessler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook78450
Donte Moncrief44430
Leonard Fournette35280
Rashad Greene22220
Blake Bell0100
Keelan Cole0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2214611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake6233.80
Ryan Tannehill3227.30
Kalen Ballage4102.50
Brandon Bolden492.30
Danny Amendola1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola33400
Kalen Ballage24390
Kenyan Drake45310
DeVante Parker23130
Durham Smythe1290
Kenny Stills1250
Mike Gesicki1150
Brandon Bolden1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.67
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64