Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.111
- 40.4%Success rate40.1%
- -0.101EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.128
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.63CPOE-0.24
- 40.5%Third-down rate30.3%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.26Points / drive1.45
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 12/17 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5/6 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/22 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64