Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
43
Model margin
+1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.008
- 45.9%Success rate43.2%
- -0.013EPA / dropback-0.010
- +0.023EPA / rush+0.036
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.24CPOE+1.59
- 48.8%Third-down rate46.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.82Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 21/29 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 28 | 108 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Camarillo | 7 | 7 | 110 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/26 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torry Holt | 2 | 3 | 71 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Hughes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69