2009 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

14·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

43

Model margin

+1.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.008
  • 45.9%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback-0.010
  • +0.023EPA / rush+0.036
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.24CPOE+1.59
  • 48.8%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.59
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–JAX
MIAQ1 15:00735Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:2538Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:201367Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 2:3336Punt7–0
MIAQ1 0:551374Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 8:331362Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 2:32649Turnover14–7
JAXQ2 1:2336Punt14–7
MIAQ2 0:2100End of half14–7
JAXQ3 15:003-3Punt14–7
MIAQ3 13:361060Missed field goal14–7
JAXQ3 7:51668Field goal14–10
MIAQ3 4:55615Punt14–10
JAXQ3 2:3735Punt14–10
MIAQ3 1:45424Turnover14–10
JAXQ3 0:0738Punt14–10
MIAQ4 13:3538Punt14–10
JAXQ4 11:33829Turnover on downs14–10
MIAQ4 7:5710Turnover14–10
JAXQ4 7:43412Punt14–10
MIAQ4 6:22519Punt14–10
JAXQ4 3:30519Turnover on downs14–10
MIAQ4 1:2034Punt14–10
JAXQ4 0:171-3End of half14–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne21/2922001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams281083.91
Ted Ginn11616.00
Chad Henne410.31
Davone Bess100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Camarillo771100
Brian Hartline34340
Davone Bess35220
Joey Haynos22150
Ted Ginn12120
Ricky Williams2270
Anthony Fasano0300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard11/2613900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew18593.31
David Garrard6264.30
Rashad Jennings11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torry Holt23710
Marcedes Lewis25300
Maurice Jones-Drew22240
Mike Sims-Walker1660
Ernest Wilford1150
Mike Thomas1450
Nate Hughes0200
Zach Miller0100
Rashad Jennings22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69