Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
42
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.161
- 48.7%Success rate37.6%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.114
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.14CPOE-7.00
- 41.5%Third-down rate32.0%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.97Points / drive0.97
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/29 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 18/34 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.21