Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.079
- 41.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.113
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.02CPOE-4.53
- 41.1%Third-down rate35.6%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 33/47 | 329 | 2 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 8 | 9 | 115 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 10 | 13 | 70 | 2 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/41 | 319 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 10 | 100 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79