2021 · Week 6

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

20·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.079
  • 41.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.028EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.180EPA / rush-0.113
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.02CPOE-4.53
  • 41.1%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–JAX
MIAQ1 15:001385Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:45756Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 3:49976Field goal10–3
JAXQ2 14:1547Punt10–3
MIAQ2 12:39422Punt10–3
JAXQ2 10:3333Punt10–3
MIAQ2 8:49732Field goal13–3
JAXQ2 5:38954Punt13–3
MIAQ2 2:0539Punt13–3
JAXQ2 1:45649Touchdown13–10
MIAQ2 0:40435Missed field goal13–10
JAXQ3 15:00665Touchdown13–17
MIAQ3 12:291042Punt13–17
JAXQ3 6:01848Turnover13–17
MIAQ3 1:1810Turnover13–17
JAXQ3 1:07530Turnover on downs13–17
MIAQ4 14:15788Touchdown20–17
JAXQ4 10:22524Punt20–17
MIAQ4 8:43421Punt20–17
JAXQ4 6:39844Field goal20–20
MIAQ4 3:40721Turnover on downs20–20
JAXQ4 1:42416Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa33/4732921
Jacoby Brissett1/12500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown5244.80
Salvon Ahmed7223.10
Tua Tagovailoa3227.30
Myles Gaskin591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki891150
Jaylen Waddle1013702
Mack Hollins45610
Durham Smythe56590
Salvon Ahmed12150
Albert Wilson22140
Cethan Carter1180
Malcolm Brown1170
Myles Gaskin2650
Isaiah Ford0100
Hunter Long0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/4131910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson17734.31
Trevor Lawrence2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones7101001
Jamal Agnew56780
Laviska Shenault Jr.610540
James Robinson34280
Dan Arnold25270
Luke Farrell11210
Chris Manhertz11110
Tavon Austin0100
Laquon Treadwell0100
Jacob Hollister0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79