2012 · Week 15

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

3·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.115EPA / play-0.049
  • 40.0%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.107
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -5.09CPOE-2.89
  • 28.8%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.37
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2015 · W2MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–MIA
JAXQ1 15:00961Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:03738Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 6:2643Punt3–3
MIAQ1 4:2030Punt3–3
JAXQ1 3:271133Punt3–3
MIAQ2 13:235-4Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 11:5469Turnover on downs3–3
MIAQ2 9:301576Touchdown3–10
JAXQ2 1:56741Punt3–10
MIAQ2 0:3200End of half3–10
MIAQ3 15:001081Turnover on downs3–10
JAXQ3 9:3334Punt3–10
MIAQ3 8:29460Field goal3–13
JAXQ3 5:3536Punt3–13
MIAQ3 4:01659Field goal3–16
JAXQ3 1:01865Turnover on downs3–16
MIAQ4 12:131670Touchdown3–24
JAXQ4 3:121277Turnover on downs3–24
MIAQ4 1:11211End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne18/3422100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montell Owens11474.30
Richard Murphy6203.30
Chad Henne3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts6111010
Justin Blackmon611930
Jordan Shipley24130
Marcedes Lewis3480
Montell Owens1160
Toney Clemons0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/2822020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush211045.00
Ryan Tannehill8526.50
Lamar Miller6183.00
Daniel Thomas166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline56770
Anthony Fasano67561
Marlon Moore22330
Rishard Matthews35230
Marcus Thigpen12150
Charles Clay2280
Lamar Miller1220
Reggie Bush0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35