Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play-0.049
- 40.0%Success rate42.9%
- -0.106EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -5.09CPOE-2.89
- 28.8%Third-down rate37.7%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 0.96Points / drive1.37
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 18/34 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montell Owens | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Toney Clemons | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/28 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 21 | 104 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 6 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35