2015 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.051
  • 40.5%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.254
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.20CPOE-3.08
  • 31.0%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1JAX @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W6MIA @ JAX20–23JAX
2020 · W3MIA @ JAX31–13MIA
2018 · W16JAX @ MIA17–7JAX
2014 · W8MIA @ JAX27–13MIA
2012 · W15JAX @ MIA3–24MIA
2009 · W14MIA @ JAX14–10MIA
2006 · W13JAX @ MIA24–10JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001177Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:21450Field goal3–7
JAXQ1 7:16771Field goal3–10
MIAQ1 3:2032Punt3–10
JAXQ1 1:42420Punt3–10
MIAQ2 14:44956Field goal6–10
JAXQ2 10:081096Touchdown6–17
MIAQ2 5:03767Touchdown13–17
JAXQ2 1:483-2Punt13–17
MIAQ2 1:16631Missed field goal13–17
JAXQ2 0:18311Field goal13–20
MIAQ3 15:00890Touchdown20–20
JAXQ3 10:28943Punt20–20
MIAQ3 6:3057Punt20–20
JAXQ3 4:0946Punt20–20
MIAQ3 1:59936Punt20–20
JAXQ4 12:3030Punt20–20
MIAQ4 12:06420Punt20–20
JAXQ4 9:233-1Punt20–20
MIAQ4 8:21412Punt20–20
JAXQ4 6:45615Punt20–20
MIAQ4 3:0236Punt20–20
JAXQ4 1:48961Field goal20–23
MIAQ4 0:4039Turnover on downs20–23
JAXQ4 0:1500End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill30/4435920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Tannehill3175.70
Lamar Miller10141.40
Jarvis Landry166.00
Damien Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews671150
Jarvis Landry8101100
Jordan Cameron34620
Lamar Miller56280
Jake Stoneburner22181
Damien Williams34151
Kenny Stills2480
DeVante Parker1130
Greg Jennings0500

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles18/3327320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon25702.80
Blake Bortles22713.50
Marqise Lee11212.00
Denard Robinson199.00
Bernard Pierce341.30
Corey Grant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson6121552
Allen Hurns44680
Marqise Lee24270
T.J. Yeldon34130
Rashad Greene2470
Marcedes Lewis0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.93