Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.051
- 40.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.254
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.20CPOE-3.08
- 31.0%Third-down rate33.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.42Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. JAX are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 30/44 | 359 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jake Stoneburner | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 18/33 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 25 | 70 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 12 | 155 | 2 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93