Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.070
- 38.3%Success rate46.1%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate46.8%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.98
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 19/34 | 149 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brock Forsey | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/27 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72