Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:58 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:56 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:34 | 3 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:16 | 8 | 24 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 0:31 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:21 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:46 | 9 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 4:26 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 1:07 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:09 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 10:20 | 7 | 56 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 6:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 4:26 | 2 | 24 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 3:41 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 3:22 | 9 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 13:55 | 12 | 80 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| KC | Q4 8:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| KC | Q4 6:21 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LV | Q4 4:57 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 2:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 1:47 | 9 | 98 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 11/22 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 27 | 123 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.