2003 · Week 7
Final
Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 44°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.117
- 40.4%Success rate39.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.4%Third-down rate31.3%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.19
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 8:04 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 6:34 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 3:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 1:55 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 13:43 | 6 | 68 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 10:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 9:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 7:49 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 5:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 5:13 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 2:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q2 1:48 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q3 9:12 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| WAS | Q3 5:36 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q3 4:24 | 6 | 41 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| WAS | Q3 1:39 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q4 14:52 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| WAS | Q4 10:24 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q4 7:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–24 |
| WAS | Q4 5:39 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q4 3:44 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| WAS | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| BUF | Q4 1:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 9/26 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1/3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Morton | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/26 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 31 | 167 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15