2003 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

7·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Drew Bledsoe

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

38

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBills
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.117
  • 40.4%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.140
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.19
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.087

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3BUF @ WAS37–3BUF
2021 · W3WAS @ BUF21–43BUF
2019 · W9WAS @ BUF9–24BUF
2015 · W15BUF @ WAS25–35WAS
2011 · W8WAS @ BUF0–23BUF
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey9/2611510
Rob Johnson1/3400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chad Morton7324.60
Rock Cartwright4184.50
Ladell Betts8111.40
Rob Johnson166.00
Patrick Ramsey100.00
Laveranues Coles1-11-11.00

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe19/2624411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry311675.42
Antonio Brown11717.00
Drew Bledsoe372.30
Joe Burns362.00
Alex Van Pelt1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.15