2021 · Week 3

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

21·43

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 67°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBills
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.8%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.08CPOE+1.95
  • 38.3%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.52
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3BUF @ WAS37–3BUF
2019 · W9WAS @ BUF9–24BUF
2015 · W15BUF @ WAS25–35WAS
2011 · W8WAS @ BUF0–23BUF
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
2003 · W7WAS @ BUF7–24BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00880Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:53419Punt0–7
BUFQ1 8:141041Turnover on downs0–7
WASQ1 3:09317Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 2:11944Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 12:59314Turnover0–14
BUFQ2 11:37317Touchdown0–21
WASQ2 10:42275Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 9:5100Touchdown7–21
WASQ2 9:48524Touchdown14–21
BUFQ2 7:39424Punt14–21
WASQ2 5:2737Punt14–21
BUFQ2 3:29655Field goal14–24
WASQ2 1:37515Punt14–24
BUFQ2 0:26451Field goal14–27
WASQ3 15:00415Punt14–27
BUFQ3 13:001798Touchdown14–33
WASQ3 4:4348Turnover14–33
BUFQ3 3:0436Field goal14–36
WASQ3 2:1133Punt14–36
BUFQ3 0:4839Punt14–36
WASQ4 14:39720Turnover on downs14–36
BUFQ4 11:37322Touchdown14–43
WASQ4 10:291173Touchdown21–43
BUFQ4 5:21537End of half21–43

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke14/2421222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson12312.60
J.D. McKissic3237.70
Taylor Heinicke8212.61
Cam Sims177.00
Dyami Brown1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Gibson12731
Terry McLaurin47620
Logan Thomas44421
J.D. McKissic22150
Cam Sims12150
Adam Humphries1470
Dyami Brown0200
Taylor Heinicke11-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen32/4335840
Mitchell Trubisky1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss13604.60
Devin Singletary11262.40
Mitchell Trubisky4194.80
Josh Allen492.31
Isaiah McKenzie188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley1113980
Emmanuel Sanders56942
Stefon Diggs610620
Dawson Knox45491
Zack Moss33311
Gabe Davis11230
Tommy Sweeney2220
Devin Singletary1200
Reggie Gilliam0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.64