2021 · Week 3
Final
New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 67°F · wind 21mph
Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.091
- 44.8%Success rate47.4%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.08CPOE+1.95
- 38.3%Third-down rate47.6%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.78Points / drive2.52
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 14/24 | 212 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 2 | 73 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 32/43 | 358 | 4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 11 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 94 | 2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.64