1999 · Week 9
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play+0.098
- 40.3%Success rate44.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.195EPA / rush+0.036
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.78
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 10:55 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 3:48 | 8 | 35 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 13:57 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 8:45 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q2 5:24 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 17–10 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q3 12:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| BUF | Q3 11:36 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| WAS | Q3 6:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–10 |
| BUF | Q3 6:19 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| WAS | Q3 0:50 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| BUF | Q4 14:51 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 31–10 |
| WAS | Q4 9:16 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 31–17 |
| BUF | Q4 7:27 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 34–17 |
| WAS | Q4 4:01 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 34–17 |
| BUF | Q4 3:45 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 34–17 |
| WAS | Q4 1:53 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 34–17 |
| BUF | Q4 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 34–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 16/22 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Doug Flutie | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/37 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 4 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88