2019 · Week 9

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

9·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 42°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

Total

37

Model margin

+7.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBills
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.023
  • 38.8%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.94CPOE-2.62
  • 29.0%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.56
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3BUF @ WAS37–3BUF
2021 · W3WAS @ BUF21–43BUF
2015 · W15BUF @ WAS25–35WAS
2011 · W8WAS @ BUF0–23BUF
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
2003 · W7WAS @ BUF7–24BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–BUF
WASQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:15854Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:19526Punt0–7
BUFQ1 6:061166Field goal0–10
WASQ1 0:23771Field goal3–10
BUFQ2 10:421139Touchdown3–17
WASQ2 4:45755Field goal6–17
BUFQ2 0:3200End of half6–17
BUFQ3 15:00845Turnover on downs6–17
WASQ3 10:54526Punt6–17
BUFQ3 7:2064Punt6–17
WASQ3 4:24514Field goal9–17
BUFQ3 1:2131Punt9–17
WASQ4 14:41926Punt9–17
BUFQ4 10:1036Punt9–17
WASQ4 8:013-9Punt9–17
BUFQ4 5:55956Touchdown9–24
WASQ4 2:21521Turnover on downs9–24
BUFQ4 1:1400End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins15/2214400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson181086.00
Dwayne Haskins3144.70
Wendell Smallwood252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Richardson45420
Terry McLaurin46390
Adrian Peterson11220
Jeremy Sprinkle11160
Steven Sims11120
Trey Quinn1390
Kelvin Harmon1260
Wendell Smallwood23-20

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen14/2016010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary20954.81
Frank Gore11151.40
Josh Allen8121.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown47760
Devin Singletary34450
Dawson Knox22140
Cole Beasley22131
Isaiah McKenzie33120
Tyler Kroft0100
Robert Foster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.4%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.88
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+7.42