2019 · Week 9
Final
New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 42°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
BUF -10.5
Total
37
Model margin
+7.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.023
- 38.8%Success rate41.8%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.94CPOE-2.62
- 29.0%Third-down rate35.9%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.49Points / drive1.56
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 15/22 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14/20 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 4 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.88
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.42