2007 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.040
- 38.9%Success rate41.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.199
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.62CPOE+2.48
- 33.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.13Points / drive1.59
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:12 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 5:43 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 14:37 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q2 9:47 | 3 | -8 | Safety | 2–6 |
| BUF | Q2 8:19 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 2–6 |
| WAS | Q2 3:57 | 12 | 56 | Field goal | 2–9 |
| BUF | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 2–9 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 5–9 |
| WAS | Q3 11:21 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 5–16 |
| BUF | Q3 5:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 5–16 |
| WAS | Q3 4:12 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 5–16 |
| BUF | Q3 2:41 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 8–16 |
| WAS | Q3 1:09 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 8–16 |
| BUF | Q3 0:18 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 11–16 |
| WAS | Q4 11:14 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 11–16 |
| BUF | Q4 9:48 | 6 | 65 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| WAS | Q4 6:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–16 |
| BUF | Q4 4:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–16 |
| WAS | Q4 3:42 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–16 |
| BUF | Q4 0:56 | 3 | 45 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| WAS | Q4 0:04 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 22/36 | 257 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 21/37 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 50 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39