2007 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.040
- 38.9%Success rate41.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.199
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.62CPOE+2.48
- 33.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.13Points / drive1.59
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 22/36 | 257 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 21/37 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 50 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39