2023 · Week 3

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

37·3

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

44

Model margin

-3.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.084
  • 48.4%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.069
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.96CPOE+0.32
  • 49.7%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.33Points / drive1.53
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W3WAS @ BUF21–43BUF
2019 · W9WAS @ BUF9–24BUF
2015 · W15BUF @ WAS25–35WAS
2011 · W8WAS @ BUF0–23BUF
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
2003 · W7WAS @ BUF7–24BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–WAS
BUFQ1 15:001057Field goal3–0
WASQ1 9:29839Turnover3–0
BUFQ1 4:39614Punt3–0
WASQ1 2:273-9Punt9–0
BUFQ1 0:47135Touchdown10–0
WASQ1 0:41868Turnover on downs10–0
BUFQ2 11:421687Field goal13–0
WASQ2 1:5539Turnover13–0
BUFQ2 1:15519Field goal16–0
WASQ2 0:19110End of half16–0
WASQ3 15:001163Turnover16–0
BUFQ3 9:11749Turnover16–0
WASQ3 6:27611Punt16–0
BUFQ3 2:28632Turnover on downs16–0
WASQ4 14:161-2Turnover16–0
BUFQ4 14:05631Touchdown23–0
WASQ4 10:3735Opp touchdown30–0
WASQ4 10:013-6Punt30–0
BUFQ4 8:12964Touchdown37–0
WASQ4 2:15742Field goal37–3
BUFQ4 0:4600End of half37–3

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen20/3221811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook15986.50
Josh Allen34615.31
Latavius Murray5153.01
Damien Harris5153.00
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00
Deonte Harty2-2-1.00
Gabe Davis1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs8121110
Gabe Davis14351
Trent Sherfield23180
Deonte Harty23150
James Cook23140
Dawson Knox13110
Latavius Murray1160
Khalil Shakir1150
Dalton Kincaid2230

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell19/2917004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson10707.00
Sam Howell11818.00
Antonio Gibson2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel24540
Terry McLaurin66410
Cole Turner47350
Jahan Dotson24210
John Bates22120
Antonio Gibson3570
Dyami Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.40