2023 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
-3.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.084
- 48.4%Success rate41.9%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.96CPOE+0.32
- 49.7%Third-down rate35.6%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.33Points / drive1.53
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/32 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 15 | 98 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 19/29 | 170 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.40