2011 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB John Beck

0·23

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Rogers Centre · dome · a_turf

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBills
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.000
  • 41.9%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.023
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.12CPOE+0.64
  • 36.9%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.56
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3BUF @ WAS37–3BUF
2021 · W3WAS @ BUF21–43BUF
2019 · W9WAS @ BUF9–24BUF
2015 · W15BUF @ WAS25–35WAS
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
2003 · W7WAS @ BUF7–24BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–BUF
WASQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:3638Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:0839Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:04880Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 5:11841Punt0–7
BUFQ1 0:53418Turnover0–7
WASQ2 14:2760Missed field goal0–7
BUFQ2 11:0458Field goal0–10
WASQ2 8:453-4Punt0–10
BUFQ2 7:151057Turnover0–10
WASQ2 1:5538Punt0–10
BUFQ2 1:05659Field goal0–13
BUFQ3 15:00780Touchdown0–20
WASQ3 10:5677Punt0–20
BUFQ3 7:3433Punt0–20
WASQ3 5:1546Turnover on downs0–20
BUFQ3 3:4434Punt0–20
WASQ3 1:42630Turnover0–20
BUFQ4 14:52734Missed field goal0–20
WASQ4 9:59427Turnover0–20
BUFQ4 7:48840Field goal0–23
WASQ4 3:26947Turnover on downs0–23
BUFQ4 0:4000End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Beck20/3320802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain8141.80
John Beck2105.00
Donte' Stallworth122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis89940
Jabar Gaffney45400
Leonard Hankerson14230
Terrence Austin23220
Roy Helu34200
Ryan Torain1160
Donte' Stallworth0200
Anthony Armstrong0400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/2726221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson261204.60
Brad Smith4143.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Jackson34740
Steve Johnson69570
David Nelson45470
Scott Chandler22352
Naaman Roosevelt11220
Brad Smith33180
C.J. Spiller2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.73
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.75