2011 · Week 8
Final
Rogers Centre · dome · a_turf
Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.000
- 41.9%Success rate44.6%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.023
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.12CPOE+0.64
- 36.9%Third-down rate30.9%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.56
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BUF are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 20/33 | 208 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| John Beck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 8 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/27 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 35 | 2 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.73
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.75