2015 · Week 15
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.022
- 40.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.191
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.97CPOE+5.62
- 38.1%Third-down rate43.9%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.83Points / drive1.81
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 16/27 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 10 | 111 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/28 | 319 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 8 | 153 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 7 | 84 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.24