2015 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

25·35

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.022
  • 40.7%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.191
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.97CPOE+5.62
  • 38.1%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.81
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–1 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. WAS are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3BUF @ WAS37–3BUF
2021 · W3WAS @ BUF21–43BUF
2019 · W9WAS @ BUF9–24BUF
2011 · W8WAS @ BUF0–23BUF
2007 · W13BUF @ WAS17–16BUF
2003 · W7WAS @ BUF7–24BUF
1999 · W9BUF @ WAS34–17BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–WAS
WASQ1 15:001084Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:221146Punt0–7
WASQ1 2:461166Touchdown0–14
BUFQ2 12:463-4Punt0–14
WASQ2 10:33556Touchdown0–21
BUFQ2 8:473-5Punt0–21
BUFQ2 6:591456Turnover on downs0–21
WASQ2 1:34251End of half0–21
WASQ2 0:2318End of half0–21
WASQ2 0:0800End of half0–21
BUFQ3 15:001066Field goal3–21
WASQ3 8:59177Touchdown3–28
BUFQ3 8:39580Touchdown10–28
WASQ3 6:48510Punt10–28
BUFQ3 4:22285Touchdown17–28
WASQ3 3:481369Touchdown17–35
BUFQ4 11:16746Turnover on downs17–35
WASQ4 8:3439Punt17–35
BUFQ4 6:1632Punt17–35
WASQ4 5:1333Punt17–35
BUFQ4 4:09880Touchdown25–35
WASQ4 1:2600End of half25–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor16/2723520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee48120.31
Tyrod Taylor9798.80
Karlos Williams44110.30
LeSean McCoy10292.90
EJ Manuel263.00
Anthony Dixon155.00
Marcus Thigpen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins5101112
Robert Woods46440
Nick O'Leary11370
Chris Gragg11160
Chris Hogan13130
LeSean McCoy1180
Anthony Dixon1140
Mike Gillislee2220
Marcus Easley0100
Karlos Williams0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/2831940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris14846.00
Matt Jones10282.80
Kirk Cousins3113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson681531
Jordan Reed77842
Pierre Garcon34341
Jamison Crowder33210
Ryan Grant12130
Matt Jones1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.24