Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 20/29 | 192 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.