Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. SD are 6-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:43 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:58 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:25 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:34 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q1 3:17 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:14 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 10:10 | 11 | 61 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| MIA | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:55 | 6 | 29 | End of half | 24–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q3 11:16 | 7 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 24–3 |
| MIA | Q3 7:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q3 6:41 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 24–3 |
| MIA | Q3 4:55 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q3 2:49 | 10 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 24–3 |
| MIA | Q4 13:25 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q4 13:15 | 3 | 1 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| MIA | Q4 12:27 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 9:33 | 3 | -20 | Safety | 26–10 |
| MIA | Q4 8:06 | 6 | 26 | Missed field goal | 26–10 |
| LAC | Q4 4:20 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 26–10 |
| MIA | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 26–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 20/29 | 192 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.