Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.032
- 42.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.215EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- 41.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.46
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/28 | 158 | 1 | 3 |
| David Garrard | 9/12 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.78