2003 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

30·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.040EPA / play-0.032
  • 42.3%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.215EPA / dropback-0.002
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 41.2%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.46
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:00552Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 12:1045Punt3–0
TENQ1 10:15971Touchdown10–0
JAXQ1 4:33840Field goal10–3
TENQ2 14:1735Punt10–3
JAXQ2 12:4610Turnover10–3
TENQ2 12:40929Touchdown17–3
JAXQ2 7:2635Punt17–3
TENQ2 6:48411Punt17–3
JAXQ2 4:27258Touchdown17–10
TENQ2 3:381160Field goal20–10
JAXQ2 0:0100End of half20–10
JAXQ3 15:00533Punt20–10
TENQ3 12:0631Punt20–10
JAXQ3 10:2520Turnover20–10
TENQ3 10:0637Touchdown27–10
JAXQ3 8:36933Turnover on downs27–10
TENQ3 4:44614Turnover27–10
JAXQ3 1:15937Turnover27–10
TENQ4 13:011670Field goal30–10
JAXQ4 1:471286Touchdown30–17
TENQ4 0:0500End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair21/2718711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George27883.32

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich15/2815813
David Garrard9/128610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor9485.30
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala166.00
Troy Edwards100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.78