Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.070
- 41.6%Success rate46.1%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- 36.1%Third-down rate46.8%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.33Points / drive1.98
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 11:22 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 8:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 7:24 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 2:53 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 0:40 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q2 12:12 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 10:51 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q2 9:26 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 7:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SEA | Q2 5:01 | 10 | 28 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 0:57 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SEA | Q3 12:21 | 6 | 11 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| PIT | Q3 10:39 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| SEA | Q3 3:54 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 6–16 |
| PIT | Q4 12:28 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| SEA | Q4 9:32 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| PIT | Q4 7:21 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 16–23 |
| SEA | Q4 3:24 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 16–23 |
| PIT | Q4 1:05 | 6 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 16–23 |
| SEA | Q4 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 21/35 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/31 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 48 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62