2003 · Week 9

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

16·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.070
  • 41.6%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.148
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate46.8%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.98
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.051EPA / play allowed-0.012

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox21/3522610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis17502.90
Amos Zereoue7324.60
Hines Ward3144.70
Tommy Maddox252.50

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/3121510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander20482.41
Maurice Morris34715.70
Matt Hasselbeck231.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62