2003 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 79°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.085
- 40.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- 34.4%Third-down rate36.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.23
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 16/30 | 147 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 2/3 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Sultan McCullough | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 17/33 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamar Martin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.97